Final Florida Congressional Vulnerability rankings for the 2022 election.
By Louis Jacobson
It’s been more than three months since we last ranked Florida’s U.S. seats by their vulnerability to a partisan flip in November in the Tampa Bay Times. And even though the primaries have been held since we last ranked these seats, very little has changed. In the end, the GOP remains well-positioned to gain seats in the delegation, thanks to a redistricting plan spearheaded by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis
Currently, the Republicans hold 16 seats in the Florida delegation, while Democrats hold 11. With the wind at their backs in the current political environment, the GOP could end up with a 20–8 advantage after Election Day.
The newly drawn map has also decreased the number of highly competitive districts. There are more seats this year that are pretty safe for one party or the other than in the map’s previous iteration.
This is the seventh consecutive election cycle in which I have assembled a list of most vulnerable House seats in the Florida congressional delegation, based on reporting with state and national observers. As always, the seats are rank-ordered in descending order, from the most vulnerable to a party switch to the least vulnerable.
As was the case in theprevious list in July, the Democrats face a difficult midterm environment due to high inflation and the historical pattern of the party holding the White House losing congressional seats in Congress. The Democrats’ have seen some new energy from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the abortion decision Roe v. Wade, but this development doesn’t seem to have fundamentally changed Florida’s congressional race picture.
Our rank-ordering of seats remains the same as July. The only switch we’re making is to adjust our ratings of three districts where the GOP redrew the lines aggressively to weaken Democratic prospects. Two of these — the 5th and the 7th — continue to sit in our “highly vulnerable” category, for which a party switch is essentially assured. But a third seat, the Pinellas County-based 13th, is competitive enough to be shifted into the “vulnerable” category.
In each of these three districts, the remapping was so brutal for Democrats that in each case, the Democratic incumbent decided not to seek another term in the House.
The 13th joins one other seat in the “vulnerable” category — the 27th district seat held by GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. Salazar is the most vulnerable incumbent running this year, though the pro-GOP political environment should help her.
No seats are in the next category, “potentially vulnerable,” while two seats reside in the “minimally vulnerable” category. They are the seat held by GOP Rep. Carlos Gimenez and the one being vacated by Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch. Barring something unexpected, both seats should remain in the hands of the party that currently controls them.
Finally, we are including one seat that technically isn’t ranked because there’s no incumbent to determine whether the seat is flipping partisan control. That’s the 15th district, which includes parts of Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties. The 15th does appear to be a competitive contest between the parties. (We have dropped from our list the 4th district, another incumbent-less seat, now that a more credible Republican candidate has defeated a wounded rival during the primary, leaving Democrats with no plausible path to victory.)
Districts not cited on our list are not considered vulnerable, at least for this election cycle.
Here’s the full list.
Highly vulnerable
- 5th District
Open seat including territory being vacated by Reps. Al Lawson (D) and John Rutherford (R)
Republican nominee: Rep. John Rutherford
Democratic nominee: None
Geography: Parts of Duval and St. Johns counties
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+11
Trump 2020: 57%
Biden 2020: 41%
Rutherford has it easier than anyone else on this list: He has no opponent on the ballot and is assured of victory in November. This is one of the districts that resulted from the GOP’s aggressive redrawing of northwest Florida districts that eliminated a district favorable to Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat. Rutherford, a GOP incumbent, decided to run in this district rather than the adjoining 4th; the 5th is modestly more Republican.
2. 7th District
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D)
Republican nominee: Cory Mills
Democratic nominee: Karen Green
Geography: Parts of Seminole and Volusia counties
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
Trump 2020: 52%
Biden 2020: 47%
The GOP is heavily favored to win this seat in November. Cory Mills, a veteran who runs a tear gas company, PACEM Solutions, won a highly competitive primary that also included Anthony Sabatini, a state representative and outspoken Donald Trump supporter, among others. (After the primary, Trump transferred his support to Mills.) In the Democratic primary, party vice chair Karen Green defeated businesswoman Tatiana Fernandez. Green, who is Jamaican by birth, has faced some questions about how she has represented her academic credentials. Mills reported only a modest amount of cash on hand at the end of September — $156,356, after spending heavily in the primary — but that still far outpaced Green, who reported a deficit of almost $3,000.
Vulnerable
3. 13th District
Shift from Highly Vulnerable
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Charlie Crist (D)
Republican nominee: Anna Paulina Luna
Democratic nominee: Eric Lynn
Geography: Parts of Pinellas County
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+6
Trump 2020: 53%
Biden 2020: 46%
While this race remains an uphill climb for Democrats, we’re lowering this contest from Highly Vulnerable to Vulnerable. The GOP’s 2020 nominee, Anna Paulina Luna, won the GOP primary for the St. Petersburg-based district, but some Republican and independent elected officials in Pinellas County have instead endorsed the Democratic nominee, former Pentagon official Eric Lynn, the Times reported. Those backers said that Lynn better reflects the district’s moderate preferences than Luna does. Beverly Young, the widow of former U.S. Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla., also endorsed Lynn after supporting Amanda Makki, Luna’s main rival in the GOP primary. Lynn didn’t have a primary and has been able to protect his money haul; he leads Luna in cash on hand through the end of September, almost $800,000 to $620,000. Lynn has criticized Luna for skipping a candidate forum. An early October poll had the two candidates running even, as did one released by St. Pete Polls on Oct. 31.
4. 27th District
Incumbent: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
Democratic nominee: Annette Taddeo
Geography: Parts of Miami-Dade County
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
Trump 2020: 50%
Biden 2020: 49%
Salazar is the delegation’s most vulnerable incumbent in either party, and while she has the wind at her back due to a midterm election cycle favorable to the GOP, the race has remained competitive down the stretch. In this Miami-based district, Trump barely won in 2020, and Democrats have a strong candidate, state Sen. Annette Taddeo, who represents a portion of the district in the Legislature. One area in which Salazar has a clear edge is in money: She has almost $2 million in the bank for the final stretch, compared to $247,000 for Taddeo. A Republican poll in mid-October found Salazar leading by 6 points, while a Democratic poll in early October found Taddeo up by 1. This suggests Salazar may have a modest edge, but with Taddeo within striking distance.
Potentially vulnerable
No races
Minimally vulnerable
5. 28th District
Incumbent: Carlos Gimenez (R)
Democratic nominee: Robert Asencio
Geography: Miami and the Keys
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
Trump 2020: 53%
Biden 2020: 47%
This Miami-based seat looks significantly safer for the GOP than Salazar’s nearby district, even though it’s only a little more heavily Republican. Gimenez is a first-term member of Congress, but he’s well known from a long career in Miami politics. He faces Democratic state Rep. Robert Asencio, who has labor union backing but not a whole lot else. Ascensio trails badly in the money game: Gimenez has more than $1.3 million in the bank, compared to Asencio’s $14,000, a major problem for the Democrat in the expensive Miami media market. A mid-September poll sponsored by Asencio’s campaign had Gimenez leading by 10 percentage points, never a good sign for a challenger. This district could become more competitive in a political environment favorable to the Democrats later in the decade, but this year, it looks unlikely to flip.
6. 23rd District
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Ted Deutch (D)
Democratic nominee: Jared Moskowitz
Republican nominee: Joe Budd
Geography: Parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+5
Trump 2020: 43%
Biden 2020: 56%
Deutch’s departure brought out a large field of Democrats, but Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz, a former state emergency management director and former state representative, won the nomination with relative ease. The GOP primary featured a large field of political novices; Joe Budd, president of Club 45 USA, a pro-Trump group, secured the nominaton. Moskowitz spent heavily in the primary, leaving him with only $120,000 in cash on hand. Still, that far outpaces Budd, who reported having less than $5,000 in the bank. If a red tsunami develops, this district could come into play, but for now, the Democrats look likely to hold this open seat.
New seat with no incumbent
Unrated: 15th District
Republican nominee: Laurel Lee
Democratic nominee: Alan Cohn
Geography: Parts of Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties
PVI (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
Trump 2020: 51%
Biden 2020: 48%
Don’t let the “unrated” label fool you; that’s an artifact of this district not having an incumbent, making it impossible for us to say whether a win by either party represents a partisan “flip.” In reality, this is one of the few reasonably competitive U.S. House contests in the state this year. Under the district’s previous lines, this was a GOP seat that Democrats frequently targeted. This year, it will be an uphill task, but not entirely impossible, for Democrats to win (though it could become a stronger target later in the decade under more favorable conditions for the party). Lee, a former secretary of state and former judge, won a highly competitive GOP primary against a large field of credible candidates. She faces Democratic nominee Alan Cohn, an award-winning investigative reporter. Lee has $362,000 in the bank, but Cohn has a respectable $220,000 and he’s aggressively attacked Lee on such issues as election denialism, her family business interests, and her support for overturning Roe v. Wade. Polls in August and September found Lee leading by 3 and 7 percentage points, respectively.
