Pundit self-accountability assessment project, 2018
Here is the rundown of how close I came in my final pre-election handicapping of the 2018 midterms for Governing, PoliticsPA and the Tampa Bay Times.
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Like any handicapper worth his or her salt, I like to go back after Election Day and see how far off my projections were. Fortunately this year, I did reasonably well.
First, a brief refresher of how I structured my handicapping of various offices.
For gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state contests, which I handicap for Governing, I not only offered a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank-ordering. That is, the list could be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats. Races that end up on the “wrong” side of that line detract from my accuracy.
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Let’s start with the gubernatorial races.
In 2010, I had just one contest on the “wrong” side of the dividing line. In 2012, I was fully correct; in 2014, my worst performance, I was wrong about four (out of 36) contests; and in 2016, I was off in two races.
This year, I again had two races on the “wrong” side of the line (this assumes that Republican Brian Kemp holds his lead over Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia).
I was too bullish on Republican Kris Kobach’s chances of prevailing in Kansas, and I was also too bullish on Democrat Andrew Gillum’s chances of winning Florida. (Regarding Gillum, I was hardly alone.) All told, two misfires out of 36 races isn’t so bad, especially when there were 11 races in the tossup column going into Election Day.
Here’s how my gubernatorial ratings look:
GOVERNOR
Published in: Governing
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Idaho (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Wyoming (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Arkansas (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Nebraska (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Texas (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Alabama (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Massachusetts (R-held) REPUBLICAN
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Tennessee (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Maryland (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Vermont (R-held) REPUBLICAN
South Carolina (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Arizona (R-held) REPUBLICAN
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Oklahoma (R-held) REPUBLICAN
New Hampshire (R-held) REPUBLICAN
TOSSUP
Alaska (I-held) REPUBLICAN
South Dakota (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Kansas (R-held) ***DEMOCRATIC***
Georgia (R-held) REPUBLICAN (leading currently)
Ohio (R-held) REPUBLICAN
Iowa (R-held) REPUBLICAN
************ THE LINE ***************
Wisconsin (R-held) DEMOCRATIC
Nevada (R-held) DEMOCRATIC
Florida (R-held) ***REPUBLICAN***
Maine (R-held) DEMOCRATIC
Oregon (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Connecticut (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
Minnesota (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
Colorado (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
New Mexico (R-held) DEMOCRATIC
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Michigan (R-held) DEMOCRATIC
Rhode Island (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
Illinois (R-held) DEMOCRATIC
Pennsylvania (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
New York (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
Hawaii (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
California (D-held) DEMOCRATIC
***
Meanwhile, for three cycles running, I had correctly arranged the state AG races.
That streak comes to an end this year, though I didn’t do all that badly, given that there were 30 AG races contested this year.
For 2018, I placed two races on the wrong side of the line — Florida (again!) and Ohio, both of which were won by Republicans.
Here’s the full list.
STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL
Published in: Governing
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Nebraska AG Doug Peterson (R) REPUBLICAN
Idaho AG Lawrence Wasden (R) REPUBLICAN
North Dakota AG Wayne Stenehjem (R) REPUBLICAN
Arkansas AG Leslie Rutledge (R) REPUBLICAN
Oklahoma AG Mike Hunter (R) REPUBLICAN
Kansas AG Derek Schmidt (R) REPUBLICAN
South Dakota: Open seat; AG Marty Jackley (R) ran unsuccessfully for governor REPUBLICAN
Alabama AG Steve Marshall (R) REPUBLICAN
Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) REPUBLICAN
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
No races in this category
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Arizona AG Mark Brnovich (R) REPUBLICAN
South Carolina AG Alan Wilson (R) REPUBLICAN
Georgia AG Chris Carr (R) REPUBLICAN
************ THE LINE ***************
TOSSUP
Wisconsin AG Brad Schimel (R) DEMOCRATIC
Michigan: Open seat; AG Bill Schuette (R) is running for governor DEMOCRATIC
Florida: Open seat; AG Pam Bondi (R) is term-limited ***REPUBLICAN***
Minnesota: Open seat; AG Lori Swanson (D) is running for governor DEMOCRATIC
Ohio: Open seat; AG Mike DeWine (R) is running for governor ***REPUBLICAN***
Nevada: Open seat; AG Adam Laxalt (R) is running for governor DEMOCRATIC
Colorado: Open seat; AG Cynthia Coffman (R) is not running for releection DEMOCRATIC
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Illinois: Open seat; AG Lisa Madigan (D) is not running for another term DEMOCRATIC
Connecticut: Open seat; AG George Jepsen (D) is retiring DEMOCRATIC
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Delaware: Open seat; AG Matt Denn (D) is retiring DEMOCRATIC
Maryland AG Brian Frosh (D) DEMOCRATIC
New York: Open seat; AG Eric Schneiderman (D) resigned DEMOCRATIC
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
New Mexico AG Hector Balderas (D) DEMOCRATIC
Massachusetts AG Maura Healy (D) DEMOCRATIC
Iowa AG Tom Miller (D) DEMOCRATIC
Rhode Island: Open seat; AG Peter Kilmartin (D) is term-limited DEMOCRATIC
Vermont AG T.J. Donovan (D) DEMOCRATIC
California AG Xavier Becerra (D) DEMOCRATIC
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This is the first election cycle in which I have rank-ordered the secretary of state races.
So far, I have only one race — Colorado — on the wrong side of the line, out of 27 contests.
Some caveats. In the Arizona and Nevada races, the Republican is currently leading, which is the way I had those states, but the races are close and are not officially settled. Meanwhile, I’m setting aside Louisiana, which still has a runoff to play out.
SECRETARY OF STATE
Published in: Governing
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Idaho Secretary of State Lawrence Denney (R) REPUBLICAN
South Dakota: Open seat; held by Shantel Krebs (R) REPUBLICAN
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R) REPUBLICAN
Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Buchanan (R) REPUBLICAN
Nebraska: Open seat; held by John Gale (R) REPUBLICAN
South Carolina Secretary of State Mark Hammond (R) REPUBLICAN
North Dakota Secretary of State Al Jaeger (R) REPUBLICAN
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Indiana Secretary of State Connie Lawson (R) REPUBLICAN
Arkansas: Open seat; held by Mark Martin (R) REPUBLICAN
Louisiana Secretary of State R. Kyle Ardoin (R) (RUNOFF PENDING)
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Arizona: Open seat: held by Michele Reagan (R) REPUBLICAN (currently leading)
Georgia: Open seat; held by Brian Kemp (R) REPUBLICAN
TOSSUP
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R) REPUBLICAN
Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams (R) ***DEMOCRATIC***
Ohio: Open seat; held by Jon Husted (R) REPUBLICAN
Kansas: Open seat; held by Kris Kobach (R) REPUBLICAN
Nevada Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske (R) REPUBLICAN
************ THE LINE ***************
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Michigan: Open seat; held by Ruth Johnson (R) DEMOCRATIC
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Connecticut Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D) DEMOCRATIC
New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D) DEMOCRATIC
Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon (D) DEMOCRATIC
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Wisconsin Secretary of State Doug LaFollette (D) DEMOCRATIC
Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D) DEMOCRATIC
Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin (D) DEMOCRATIC
Vermont Secretary of State Jim Condos (D) DEMOCRATIC
California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D) DEMOCRATIC
Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White (D) DEMOCRATIC
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STATE LEGISLATURES
Published in: Governing
I don’t rank-order legislative chambers, but my ratings here were generally accurate.
Of my six lean Republican chambers, five resulted in GOP holds (Arizona Senate, Florida Senate, Iowa House, Michigan House and Minnesota Senate) and one flipped to the Democrats (Minnesota House).
Of my six lean Democratic chambers, three resulted in Democratic holds (Connecticut House, Delaware Senate, Maine House) and three were GOP-held chambers that flipped to the Democrats (New Hampshire House, New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate).
And among my five tossups, one resulted in a Republican hold (Wisconsin Senate), one appears to have resulted in a Republican flip (Alaska House), and three resulted in flips to the Democrats (Connecticut Senate, Colorado Senate, Maine Senate).
So there were no surprise flipped chambers that I hadn’t already called competitive, and virtually all of the “lean” chambers went the way I had them leaning (the sole exception being the Minnesota House).
So, pretty accurate on legislative chambers this year.
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Finally, I ranked the vulnerable U.S. House members in the congressional delegations of two states — Pennsylvania and Florida. These lists run from the most likely to flip partisan control (at the top) to less likely to flip partisan control (at the bottom).
In both states, the only seats to flip partisan control were the seats I chose as the highest-ranking in vulnerability — in Pennsylvania, the top five seats, and in Florida, the top two seats.
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PENNSYLVANIA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
Published in: PoliticsPA.com
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
1. 5th District: R-held open seat (Patrick Meehan) FLIP
2. 6th District: R-held open seat (Ryan Costello) FLIP
3. 14th District: D-held open seat (Conor Lamb) FLIP
4. 17th District: Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) FLIP
5. 7th District: R-held open seat (Charlie Dent) FLIP
************ THE LINE ***************
6. 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) NO FLIP
VULNERABLE
7. 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) NO FLIP
8. 16th District: Rep. Mike Kelly (R) NO FLIP
9. 11th District: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R) NO FLIP
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
10. 8th District: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) NO FLIP
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
11. 9th District: R-held open seat (Lou Barletta) NO FLIP
***
FLORIDA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
Published in: Tampa Bay Times
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
No races in this category.
VULNERABLE
1. District 27: Open seat (Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R, is retiring) FLIP
2. District 26: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) FLIP
************ THE LINE ***************
3. District 15: Open seat (Rep. Dennis Ross, R, is retiring) NO FLIP
4. District 6: Open seat (Rep. Ron DeSantis, R, running for governor) NO FLIP
5. District 18: Rep. Brian Mast (R) NO FLIP
6. District 25: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) NO FLIP
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
7 (tie). District 7: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) NO FLIP
7 (tie). District 16: Vern Buchanan (R) NO FLIP
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
9 (tie). District 3 (Ted Yoho, R), District 8 (Bill Posey, R), District 12 (Gus Bilirakis, R) NO FLIPS
So, to sum up: Governors, off by two races; AGs, off by two races; secretaries of state, off by one race; legislatures, one minor misfire; and two U.S. House vulnerability rankings, perfect.
Let’s try this again in two years.
