Pundit self-accountability assessment project, 2020
Here is the rundown of how close I came in my final pre-election handicapping of the 2018 midterms for the Cook Political Report, U.S. News & World Report, PoliticsPA, the Tampa Bay Times, and the Austin American-Statesman.
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Every two years, I go back after Election Day to see how far off my handicapping was. This was a tough year for congressional handicappers, and I am relieved that I did not have anything at stake in handicapping the full U.S. House or Senate.
On balance, though, I’m pleased with how my ratings turned out this year.
First, a brief refresher of how I structured my handicapping of various offices.
For the electoral college and gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state races, I not only offered a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank-ordering. That is, the list could be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats. Races that end up on the “wrong” side of that line detract from my accuracy.
For state legislature control, I used a “safe,” “likely,” “lean” and “tossup” rating, but did not rank-order chambers likely to switch. Finally, for U.S. House seats in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas, I listed seats in descending order of vulnerability to a party switch.
My previous self-assessments can be reviewed for 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012.
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ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Let’s start with the presidential race. Here’s the history.
In 2008, when I was handicapping for Stateline.org, my placement of states on the continuum was correct except for Missouri and one electoral vote for a congressional district in Nebraska. In 2012, when I was doing my ratings for Governing magazine, I placed the line exactly right, with the one state in the tossup category that was ranked closest to lean Republican — North Carolina — going to Mitt Romney, and all other tossup states going to Barack Obama.
In 2016, I, like many other political analysts, had my worst year. In my ratings for Governing, I failed to place three states correctly on the continuum: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania should have swapped places with New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado. I hadn’t appreciated Trump’s ability to draw Rust Belt voters in those three decisive states.
This year, I published my final handicapping of the electoral college for U.S. News & World Report on Nov. 2, the day before the election.
Five states remain uncalled, but I am assuming they will go for the current leader: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada for Joe Biden, and Alaska and North Carolina for President Donald Trump. (If that changes, I’ll adjust this article.)
This means I had only one tossup state on the wrong side of the line: Georgia. I had thought, wrongly, that North Carolina, Maine’s 2nd congressional district, and Florida were more likely to flip to the Democrats than Georgia was. That makes 2020 my second-best finish out of the past four presidential elections.
Here is my ordering of the states for 2020, followed by the result. The parentheses refer to electoral votes.
SAFE REPUBLICAN (97) — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Alabama (9), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Nebraska, except 2nd District (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3),Tennessee (11), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN (28) — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Kansas (6), Montana (3), Utah (6), Missouri (10), Alaska (3)
LEAN REPUBLICAN (0)
None
TOSS-UP (134)
Texas (38) — REPUBLICAN
Ohio (18) — REPUBLICAN
Iowa (6) — REPUBLICAN
Georgia (16) — DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina (15) — REPUBLICAN
Maine 2nd District (1) — REPUBLICAN
Florida (29) — REPUBLICAN
======THE LINE======
Arizona (11) — DEMOCRATIC
LEAN DEMOCRATIC (67) — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Nebraska 2nd District (1), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Nevada (6), Minnesota (10), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC (30) — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Maine, except 2nd District (3), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Virginia (13)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC (182) — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
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GOVERNOR
Next, the gubernatorial races, which I also handicapped for U.S. News & World Report. My final ratings were published on Oct. 29.
In 2010, I had just one contest on the “wrong” side of the dividing line. In 2012, I was fully correct; in 2014, my worst performance, I was wrong about four (out of 36) contests. In 2016, I was off in two races. In 2018, I had two races out of 36 on the “wrong” side of the line.
This year, for the first time in eight years, I had no mistakes.
SAFE REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
North Dakota: Gov. Doug Burgum (R)
Utah: Open seat (Republican Gov. Gary Herbert is retiring)
Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott (R)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Indiana: Gov. Eric Holcomb (R)
West Virginia: Gov. Jim Justice (R)
New Hampshire: Gov. Chris Sununu (R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Missouri: Gov. Mike Parson (R)
Montana: Open seat (Democrat Steve Bullock is term-limited and running for a Senate seat) (Shift from Toss Up)
TOSS-UP
No races
======THE LINE======
LEAN DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina: Gov. Roy Cooper (D)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
No races
SAFE DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Washington: Jay Inslee (D)
Delaware: Gov. John Carney (D)
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ATTORNEY GENERAL
For state attorney general races, I correctly arranged them in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then placed two races on the wrong side of the line (out of 30 races) in 2018.
Here are my final state AG ratings for the Cook Political Report, published on Oct. 28.
I got these races all correct this year.
SOLID REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Utah: Sean Reyes (R)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Missouri: Eric Schmitt (R)
West Virginia: Patrick Morrisey (R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Indiana: OPEN (Hill) (R)
Montana: OPEN (Fox) (R)
TOSS UP
No races
======THE LINE======
LEAN DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina: Josh Stein (D)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (D)
SOLID DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Oregon: Ellen Rosenblum (D)
Washington: Bob Ferguson (D)
Vermont: T.J. Donovan (D)
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SECRETARY OF STATE
I have rank-ordered the secretary of state races in 2018 and 2020.
In 2018, I got two contests out of 27 on the wrong side of the line (Arizona and Colorado).
This year, my handicapping was published in the Cook Political Report, with the final ratings published on Oct. 28.
I called all of them correctly.
SOLID REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Missouri: Jay Ashcroft (R)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
West Virginia: Mac Warner (R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN — ALL VOTED REPUBLICAN
Montana: Open seat (Republican Corey Stapleton lost a primary for the U.S. House)
Washington: Kim Wyman (R)
TOSS UP
No races
======THE LINE======
LEAN DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
No races
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
North Carolina: Elaine Marshall (D)
Oregon: Open seat (Republican Bev Clarno is not running)
SOLID DEMOCRATIC — ALL VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Vermont: Jim Condos (D)
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STATE LEGISLATURES
I published my final state legislature handicapping on Nov. 2 for the Cook Political Report.
State legislative chambers take a while to resolve, given the likelihood of close races, shifting coalitions, and the potential for party switchers in close chambers. So there’s still a bit of uncertainty here. Generally, I am most concerned if a chamber flips and I hadn’t labeled it as competitive (either lean Republican, tossup, or lean Democratic). Nothing like that seems to have happened this year.
Still, I did suffer a few smaller black eyes. I had both Democratic-held chambers in New Hampshire rated Lean Democratic, but they ended up flipping to the GOP. I also had the Arizona House rated Lean Democratic, but it appears to be staying with the GOP.
The other two Lean Democratic chambers remained Democratic (the Maine Senate and the Minnesota House).
In Alaska, the Republicans appear likely to take over the House, which had been in a Democratic-led coalition until now. I had rated this chamber Lean Republican. Every other Lean Republican chamber remained in GOP hands: the Florida Senate, both chambers in Georgia, the North Carolina House, the Pennsylvania Senate, and the Wisconsin Senate.
The tossup chambers all stuck with their current GOP control this year: the Arizona Senate, the Iowa House, the Michigan House, the Minnesota Senate, the North Carolina Senate, the Pennsylvania House, and the Texas House.
Bottom line: No out-of-the-blue surprises, but a pair of disappointments in New Hampshire and potentially one in Arizona.
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CONGRESSIONAL VULNERABILITY RANKINGS
I ranked the vulnerable U.S. House members in the congressional delegations of three states — Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas. Each of these lists run from the most likely to flip partisan control (at the top) to less likely to flip partisan control (at the bottom).
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PENNSYLVANIA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
My final ratings were published in PoliticsPA.com on Oct. 29.
As it turned out, not a single seat flipped party control. So, in a sense, I rated them perfectly.
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
None
VULNERABLE
1st — 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) — NO FLIP
2nd — 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) — NO FLIP
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
3rd (tie) — 17th District: Rep. Conor Lamb (D) — NO FLIP
3rd (tie) — 8th District: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) — NO FLIP
5th — 7th District: Rep. Susan Wild (D) — NO FLIP
6th –16th District: Rep. Mike Kelly (R) — NO FLIP
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
7th — 11th District: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R) — NO FLIP
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FLORIDA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
My final ratings were published in the Tampa Bay Times on Oct. 30.
Two seats ended up flipping, and I had them ranked №1 and №3 on my list. So I had one race on the wrong side of the line.
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
No races in this category
VULNERABLE
1st — District 26: Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) — FLIP
2nd — District 15: Open seat (Rep. Ross Spano, R, was defeated in primary) — NO FLIP
3rd (tie) — District 27: Rep. Donna Shalala (D) — FLIP
======THE LINE======
3rd (tie) — District 16: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) — NO FLIP
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
5th — District 18: Rep. Brian Mast (R) — NO FLIP
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
6th — District 13: Rep. Charlie Crist (D) — NO FLIP
7th — District 7: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) — NO FLIP
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TEXAS U.S. HOUSE SEATS
This was the first year I’ve done vulnerability ratings for Texas U.S. House seats. They were published in the Austin American-Statesman on Nov. 2.
As was the case in Pennsylvania, no seats ended up flipping in Texas, so here too I was “correct,” in a sense.
VULNERABLE
1. 23rd District: Open (Republican Rep. Will Hurd is retiring) — NO FLIP
2 (tie). 21st District: Rep. Chip Roy (R) — NO FLIP
2 (tie). 24th District: Open (Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant is retiring) — NO FLIP
2 (tie). 22nd District: Open (Republican Rep. Pete Olson is retiring) — NO FLIP
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
5. 10th District: Rep. Michael McCaul (R) — NO FLIP
6. 7th District: Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) — NO FLIP
7. 32nd District: Rep. Colin Allred (D) — NO FLIP
8. 3rd District: Rep. Van Taylor (R) — NO FLIP
9. 25th District: Rep. Roger Williams (R) — NO FLIP
10. 31st District: Rep. John Carter (R) — NO FLIP
11. 6th District: Rep. Ron Wright (R) — NO FLIP
12. 2nd District: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) — NO FLIP
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
13. 17th District: Open (Republican Rep. Bill Flores is retiring) — NO FLIP
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SUMMING UP
President: Only one state on the wrong side of “the line”
Governor, state AG, secretary of state: 100% on target
State legislature: Two Lean Democratic chambers flipped to the GOP, and one Lean Democratic chamber may have gone to the GOP.
Pennsylvania and Texas U.S. House races: No mistakes.
Florida U.S. House races: One un-flipped seat on the wrong side of the line.
I’ll take it. We’ll try this again in two years.
