Pundit self-accountability assessment project, 2022
Here is the rundown of how close I came in my final pre-election handicapping of the 2022 midterms for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, U.S. News & World Report, PoliticsPA, and the Tampa Bay Times.
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Every two years, I go back after Election Day to see how far off my handicapping was. Given the underperformance of Republicans this year, I am relieved that I do not, as a matter of practice, predict how high a partisan wave will crest on Election Night by offering seat-pickup predictions. Rather, I take a more micro-level approach.
For the gubernatorial, attorney general, and secretary of state races, I not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Republican, but also a rank-ordering. My final list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, it should be possible to draw a line somewhere in the middle and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats. Races that end up on the “wrong” side of that line detract from my accuracy.
I do it a little differently for state legislature control; I use a “safe,” “likely,” “lean” and “tossup” rating, but do not rank-order chambers likely to switch. Finally, for U.S. House seats in Florida and Pennsylvania, I list seats in descending order of vulnerability to a party switch.
On balance, I’m pretty satisfied with how my ratings turned out this year. Here are the details, office by office.
My previous post-election self-assessments can be reviewed for 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012.
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GOVERNORS
This year, I handicapped the gubernatorial races for U.S. News & World Report for the second straight cycle. My final ratings were published on Nov. 7, one day before the election.
In 2010, I had just one contest on the “wrong” side of the dividing line. In 2012, I was fully correct; in 2014, my worst performance, I was wrong about four (out of 36) contests. In 2016, I was off in two races. In 2018, I had two races out of 36 on the “wrong” side of the line. And in 2020, I had no mistakes.
This year, I got only one race out of 36 on the wrong side of the line: I had thought that Republican Kari Lake had a better chance of winning in Arizona than fellow Republican Joe Lombardo did in Nevada.
ALL SAFE AND LIKELY REPUBLICAN STATES VOTED REPUBLICAN FOR GOVERNOR
LEAN REPUBLICAN — ALL STATES VOTED REPUBLICAN
Oklahoma: Incumbent Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt won reelection
******************* THE LINE ******************
TOSS-UP
Arizona: Democrat Katie Hobbs flipped a Republican-held open seat
WRONG SIDE OF LINE: Nevada: Republican challenger Joe Lombardo defeated iIncumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won reelection
Oregon: Democrat Tina Kotek won a Democratic-held open seat
Kansas: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won reelection
LEAN DEMOCRATIC — ALL STATES VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Michigan: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection
Minnesota: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tim Walz won reelection
New Mexico: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham won reelection
Maine: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Janet Mills won reelection
Rhode Island: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Dan McKee was elected
New York: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul won reelection
ALL LIKELY AND SAFE DEMOCRATIC SEATS VOTED DEMOCRATIC
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SECRETARY OF STATE
I have previously rank-ordered the secretary of state races in 2018 and 2020.
In 2018, I got two contests out of 27 on the wrong side of the line (Arizona and Colorado). In 2020, I called all of them correctly.
This year, my secretary of state handicapping was published in Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with the final ratings published on Nov. 3.
This year, assuming the one as-yet uncalled race in Wisconsin goes Democratic (as the current votes narrowly have it), I will have ranked-ordered all the races correctly. This was hardly predestined, because this year included several races between mainstream Democrats and election-denying Republicans, and it was not at all clear to me before the election whether the Democratic candidates would be able to win in what was looking like a strong Republican year. In addition, the key tossup states were all close: 52%-48% in Arizona, 49%-47% in Nevada, and 48.3%-48.0% in Wisconsin.
ALL SAFE AND LIKELY REPUBLICAN STATES VOTED REPUBLICAN FOR SECRETARY OF STATE
LEAN REPUBLICAN — ALL STATES VOTED REPUBLICAN
Georgia: Incumbent Republican Brad Raffensperger was reelected
Iowa: Incumbent Republican Paul Pate won reelected
TOSS UP
Indiana: Republican Diego Morales won a Republican-held open seat
******************* THE LINE ******************
Arizona: Democrat Adrian Fontes won a Democratic-held open seat
Nevada: Democrat Ciso Aguilar flipped a Republican-held open seat
Wisconsin: Democratic incumbent Doug La Follette is leading Republican Amy Loudenbeck in an as-yet un-called race.
LEAN DEMOCRATIC — ALL STATES VOTED DEMOCRATIC
Minnesota: Incumbent Democrat Steve Simon won reelection
Michigan: Incumbent Democrat Jocelyn Benson won reelection
New Mexico: Incumbent Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver won reelection
Washington state: Incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs was elected
Colorado: Incumbent Democrat Jena Griswold was reelected
ALL SAFE AND LIKELY DEMOCRATIC STATES VOTED DEMOCRATIC FOR SECRETARY OF STATE
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ATTORNEY GENERAL
For state attorney general races, I correctly arranged them in 2012, 2014, and 2016, then placed two races on the wrong side of the line (out of 30 races) in 2018. In 2020, I got every race correct.
This year, my final ratings appeared in Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Nov. 3,
This was my weakest category of any this cycle: I had two races on the wrong side of the line, Kansas and Iowa. It’s possible a third could go on the wrong side, if the Republican nominee in Arizona climbs back into the lead thanks to the final batches of ballots. These races were all close: The candidates in Iowa and Kansas were both separated by less than 2 percentage points, and in the Arizona race, the candidates are currently separated by only a few hundred votes.
ALL SAFE AND LIKELY REPUBLICAN STATES VOTED REPUBLICAN FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL
LEAN REPUBLICAN — ALL STATES VOTED REPUBLICAN
Georgia: Incumbent Republican Chris Carr won reelection.
Idaho: Republican Raúl Labrador won a Republican-held open seat
Texas: Incumbent Republican Ken Paxton won reelection
************** THE LINE ****************
TOSS UP
Minnesota: Incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison won reelection
Arizona: Democrat Kris Mayes is narrowly leading Republican Abraham Hamadeh for a Republican-held open seat.
WRONG SIDE OF LINE: Kansas: Republican Kris Kobach won a Republican-held open seat
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democrat Josh Kaul was reelected
Nevada: Incumbent Democrat Aaron Ford was reelected
LEAN DEMOCRATIC — ALL STATES VOTED DEMOCRATIC
WRONG SIDE OF LINE: Iowa: Republican Brenna Bird ousted incumbent Democrat Tom Miller
Michigan: Incumbent Democrat Dana Nessel was reelected
New Mexico: Democrat Raúl Torrez won a Democratic-held open seat
Colorado: Incumbent Democrat Phil Weiser won reelection
ALL SAFE AND LIKELY DEMOCRATIC STATES VOTED DEMOCRATIC FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL
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STATE LEGISLATURES
I published my final state legislature handicapping on Oct 20 in Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
State legislative chambers take a while to resolve, given the likelihood of close races, shifting coalitions, and the potential for party switchers in close chambers. So there’s still a bit of uncertainty here. Generally, I am most concerned if a chamber flips and I hadn’t labeled it as competitive (either lean Republican, tossup, or lean Democratic). Nothing like that seems to have happened this year.
In a surprise, the Democrats ended up flipping both chambers of the Michigan legislature, plus the Minnesota Senate. I had placed both Michigan chambers in the tossup category, and I had the Minnesota Senate as lean Republican, meaning it was competitive.
In my final handicapping, I moved both the Pennsylvania House and the New Hampshire House from likely Republican to lean Republican. I’m glad I did. The Pennsylvania House appears to have narrowly shifted to Democratic control, and the New Hampshire House is undergoing recounts to determine the majority.
The other nine chambers I listed as being competitive did not change hands. (Alaska’s legislature is unresolved due to lengthy ballot counting; the House will likely be decided when legislators get together to determine whether to continue a power-sharing agreement.)
Bottom line: No partisan flips in chambers that I hadn’t listed as competitive.
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CONGRESSIONAL VULNERABILITY RANKINGS
I ranked the vulnerable U.S. House members in the congressional delegations of two states — Florida, for the Tampa Bay Times, and Pennsylvania, for PoliticsPA.com. Both these lists run from the most likely to flip partisan control (at the top) to less likely to flip partisan control (at the bottom).
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PENNSYLVANIA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
My final ratings were published on Oct. 21.
As it turned out, not a single seat flipped party control. So I guess I rated them perfectly.
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
1. 7th District
Incumbent: Rep. Susan Wild (D) — NO FLIP
2. 8th District
Incumbent: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) — NO FLIP
3. 17th District
Open seat being vacated by Rep. Conor Lamb (D) — NO FLIP
VULNERABLE
No Races
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
4. 12th District
Open seat being vacated by Rep. Mike Doyle (D) — NO FLIP
5. 6th District
Incumbent: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D) — NO FLIP
6. 10th District
Incumbent: Scott Perry (R) — NO FLIP
7. 1st District
Incumbent: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) — NO FLIP
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FLORIDA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
My final ratings were published on Nov. 7. The three most vulnerable seats in my ratings all flipped partisan control; the rest did not. So my ratings were accurate.
Highly vulnerable
1. 5th District
Open seat including territory being vacated by Reps. Al Lawson (D) and John Rutherford (R)
FLIP to Republican
2. 7th District
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D)
FLIP to Republican
Vulnerable
3. 13th District
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Charlie Crist (D)
FLIP to Republican
4. 27th District
Incumbent: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
NO FLIP
Potentially vulnerable
No races
Minimally vulnerable
5. 28th District
Incumbent: Carlos Gimenez (R)
NO FLIP
6. 23rd District
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Ted Deutch (D)
NO FLIP
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SUMMING UP
Governor: Only one race out of 36 on the wrong side of the line
Secretary of state: Fully on target
Attorney general: Two races on the wrong side of the line.
State legislature: All chambers that flipped had been rated as competitive.
Pennsylvania U.S. House races: No mistakes.
Florida U.S. House races: No mistakes.
I’ll take it. We’ll try this again in two years.
