Pundit self-accountability assessment project, 2024
Here is the rundown of how close I came in my final pre-election handicapping of the 2024 election for U.S. News & World Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, PoliticsPA, and the Tampa Bay Times.
One of my traditions as a political analyst is to go back after Election Day to see how accurate or inaccurate my handicapping was during the just-completed election cycle. By design, I do not predict how high a partisan wave will crest on Election Night, since I am not very good at that. Instead, I offer the relative likelihood of which seats are likelier to go Republican and which are likelier to go Democratic.
In races for president, senator, governor, attorney general, secretary of state and lieutenant governor races, I not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Republican, but also a rank-ordering. My final list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, it should be possible to draw a line somewhere in the middle that divides the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats. Races that end up on the “wrong” side of that line detract from my accuracy.
I do it a little differently for state legislature control; I use a “safe,” “likely,” “lean” and “tossup” rating, but I do not rank-order chambers likely to switch.
Finally, for U.S. House seats in Florida and Pennsylvania, I list seats in descending order of vulnerability to a party switch.
I’m pleased (and relieved) to report that this year, my handicapping was generally on target. Here are the details, office by office, with a summary at the end.
My previous post-election self-assessments can be reviewed for 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012.
***
PRESIDENT
Like most handicappers, I placed seven battleground states in the Toss-up category when I published my final ratings in U.S. News & World Report on Nov. 4, the day before Election Day. Each of these seven states went for Donald Trump, while every seat that leaned, or stronger, to one party or the other went with that party.
So for president, the line’s placement is perfect.
Safe Republican (119 electoral votes)
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska, except District 2 (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
Likely Republican (99)
Kansas (6)
Ohio (17)
Iowa (6)
Florida (30)
Texas (40)
Lean Republican (1)
Maine District 2 (1)
Toss-Up (93)
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
North Carolina (16)
Nevada (6)
Pennsylvania (19)
Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (15)
ALL RACES ABOVE WENT REPUBLICAN
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
THE LINE
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
ALL RACES BELOW WENT DEMOCRATIC
Lean Democratic (1)
Nebraska District 2 (1)
Likely Democratic (32)
New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)
Safe Democratic (193)
California (54), Colorado (10), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine, statewide (2), Maine District 1 (1), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11). New Jersey (14), New York (28), Oregon (8), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
This is the first time I’ve had a perfectly placed line in the presidential contest since 2012, though several other years I came close.
Previous results:
2008 for Stateline.org: Correct except for Missouri and one electoral vote for Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district on the wrong side of the line.
2012 for Governing: The line was exactly right.
2016 for Governing: My worst year. I failed to place three states correctly on the continuum: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania should have swapped places with New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado.
2020 for U.S. News & World Report: In my final handicapping, I had one tossup state on the wrong side of the line: Georgia.
SENATE
In my final ratings of the Senate contests for U.S. News & World Report on Nov. 4, the line also ended up in the right place. My only slight miscue was having Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey’s race in the Lean Democratic category. But it was the closest of the five Lean Democratic races to the Toss-up category, so each party’s wins ended up on the right side of the line.
Safe Republican
Indiana (open seat), Missouri (Josh Hawley), Mississippi (Roger Wicker), North Dakota (Kevin Cramer), Nebraska special election (Pete Ricketts), Tennessee (Marsha Blackburn), Utah (open seat), West Virginia (open seat) and Wyoming (John Barrasso).
Likely Republican
No races
Lean Republican
Florida (Sen. Rick Scott, R)
Nebraska (Sen. Deb Fischer, R)
Texas (Sen. Ted Cruz, R)
Montana (Sen. Jon Tester, D)
Toss-Up
Ohio (Sen. Sherrod Brown, D)
Lean Democratic
Pennsylvania (Sen. Bob Casey, D)
ALL RACES ABOVE WENT REPUBLICAN
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
THE LINE
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
ALL RACES BELOW WENT DEMOCRATIC
Wisconsin (Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D)
Michigan (Democratic-held open seat)
Nevada (Sen. Jacky Rosen, D)
Arizona (Democratic-caucusing-independent-held open seat)
Likely Democratic
Maryland (Democratic-held open seat)
Safe Democratic
California (open seat), Connecticut (Chris Murphy), Delaware (open seat), Hawaii (Mazie Hirono), Massachusetts (Elizabeth Warren), Maine (Angus King, independent who caucuses with Democrats), Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar), New Jersey (open seat), New Mexico (Martin Heinrich), New York (Kirsten Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse), Virginia (Tim Kaine), Vermont (Bernie Sanders, independent who caucuses with Democrats) and Washington (Maria Cantwell).
This is the first cycle I have publicly handicapped Senate races.
GOVERNOR
The placement of the line in my final ratings of the gubernatorial contests, for U.S. News & World Report on Nov. 4, was also perfect, though this wasn’t too hard to do, since most of the 11 races ended up in the Safe Republican or Safe Democratic category.
The only truly competitive race was the one in New Hampshire. I rated it a Toss-up, and it ended up going Republican.
Safe Republican
Utah: Republican Gov. Spencer Cox
North Dakota: Open seat (Republican Gov. Doug Burgum is retiring)
West Virginia: Open Seat (Republican Gov. Jim Justice is running for Senate)
Vermont: Republican Gov. Phil Scott
Montana: Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte
Missouri: Open Seat (Republican Gov. Mike Parson is term-limited)
Likely Republican
No races
Lean Republican
Indiana: Open Seat (Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb is term-limited)
Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Open seat (Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is retiring)
ALL RACES ABOVE WENT REPUBLICAN
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
THE LINE
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
ALL RACES BELOW WENT DEMOCRATIC
Lean Democratic
No races
Likely Democratic
Washington: Open Seat (Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee is retiring)
North Carolina: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited)
Safe Democratic
Delaware: Open Seat (Democratic Gov. John Carney is term-limited)
Previous results:
2010 for Governing: One contest on the wrong side of the dividing line.
2012 for Governing: Fully correct
2014 for Governing: Wrong on four out of 36 contests.
2016 for Governing: Off in two races.
2018 for Governing: Two races out of 36 on the wrong side of the line.
2020 for U.S. News & World Report: Fully correct.
2022 for U.S. & News Report: One race out of 36 on the wrong side of the line:
***
SECRETARY OF STATE
This year, I handicapped the secretary of state races for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with the final ratings published Nov. 1.
Like the gubernatorial races, the secretary of state races were straightforward to predict, and the line ended up in the perfect place for the third consecutive election cycle.
Safe Republican
West Virginia: Open seat (Mac Warner, R, lost a primary for governor)
Montana: Republican Christi Jacobsen
Missouri: Open seat (Jay Ashcroft, R, lost a primary bid for governor)
ALL RACES ABOVE WENT REPUBLICAN
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
THE LINE
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
ALL RACES BELOW WENT DEMOCRATIC
Lean Democratic
North Carolina: Democrat Elaine Marshall
Safe Democratic
Oregon: Open seat (Appointed AG LaVonne Griffin-Valade, D, is not running for a full term)
Washington: Democrat Steve Hobbs
Vermont: Democrat Sarah Copeland Hanzas
Previous results:
2018 for Governing: Two contests out of 27 ended up on the wrong side of the line (Arizona and Colorado).
2020 for Sabato’s Crystal Ball: The line was perfect.
2022 for Sabato’s Crystal Ball: The line was perfect.
***
ATTORNEY GENERAL
I also handicapped the state attorney general races for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with the final ratings published Nov. 1.
This year, the line was close for attorney general races, but not perfect. One contest ended up on the wrong side of the line. Of the two Toss-up races, I should have had North Carolina’s closer to the Democratic side and Pennsylvania’s closer to the Republican side.
Safe Republican
Utah: Open seat (Sean Reyes, R, is retiring)
West Virginia: Open seat (Patrick Morrisey, R, is running for governor)
Missouri: Republican Andrew Bailey
Montana: Republican Austin Knudsen
Likely Republican
Indiana: Republican Todd Rokita
Toss-up
North Carolina: Open seat (Josh Stein, D, is running for governor) — WRONG SIDE OF THE LINE
Pennsylvania: Open seat (Appointed AG Michelle Henry, D, is not running)
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
THE LINE
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
Likely Democratic
Oregon: Open seat (Ellen Rosenblum, D, is retiring)
Safe Democratic
Vermont: Democrat Charity Clark
Washington state: Open seat (Bob Ferguson, D, is running for governor)
Previous results:
2012 for Governing: All correct
2014 for Governing: All correct
2016 for Governing: All correct
2018 for Governing: Two races on the wrong side of the line out of 30 races.
2020 for Sabato’s Crystal Ball: All correct.
2020 for Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Two races on the wrong side of the line, Kansas and Iowa.
***
STATE LEGISLATURES
Because of the complexities of state legislature control, I don’t rank-order the chambers as I do when handicapping other offices. But the chambers I rated Lean Republican or Lean Democratic for Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Oct. 23 all went Republican or Democratic, respectively, and the races in the Toss-up category included a mix of results, as to be expected.
Lean Republican
New Hampshire Senate: REMAINED REPUBLICAN
Pennsylvania Senate: REMAINED REPUBLICAN
Wisconsin Assembly: REMAINED REPUBLICAN
Toss-up
New Hampshire House: REMAINED REPUBLICAN
Arizona Senate: APPARENTLY REMAIN REPUBLICAN
Arizona House: APPARENTLY REMAIN REPUBLICAN
Michigan House: FLIP FROM DEMOCRATIC TO REPUBLICAN
Minnesota House: FLIP FROM DEMOCRATIC TO TIE
Alaska House: FLIP FROM REPUBLICAN TO OTHER
Pennsylvania House: REMAINED DEMOCRATIC
Lean Democratic
Maine House: REMAINED DEMOCRATIC
Minnesota Senate: REMAINED DEMOCRATIC
Lean Other (i.e., cross-party majority coalition)
Alaska Senate: Senate REMAINED OTHER
***
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
This category (which I handicapped for the first time this year, for Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Nov. 1) included my biggest miss this cycle. I’d placed Vermont Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman in the Safe Democratic category, but he’s now trailing his Republican challenger, amid an unusually strong Republican showing for various offices in this generally blue state. This put this race on the wrong side of the line; it should have been swapped with the race in North Carolina, where Democratic candidate Rachel Hunt won after being in the Toss-up category.
Safe Republican
Missouri: Open seat (Mike Kehoe, R, is running for governor)
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
THE LINE
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — -
Toss-up
North Carolina: Open seat (Mark Robinson, R, is running for governor)
Safe Democratic
Vermont: Democrat-Progressive David Zuckerman — WRONG SIDE OF THE LINE
Delaware: Open seat (Bethany Hall-Long, D, lost a primary bid for governor)
Washington: Democrat Denny Heck
***
CONGRESSIONAL VULNERABILITY RANKINGS
As I’ve done since the 2010 election cycle, I ranked the vulnerable U.S. House members in the congressional delegations of two states — Florida, for the Tampa Bay Times, and Pennsylvania, for PoliticsPA.com. Both these lists are structured a little differently than the rest of the races here; i ordered the races from the most likely to flip partisan control (at the top) to less likely to flip partisan control (at the bottom).
***
PENNSYLVANIA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
My final ratings were published in PoliticsPA on Oct. 29. The top two races flipped, and the next seat nearly did but remained in GOP hands. So my rank-ordering was accurate.
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
№1: 8th Congressional District: Matt Cartwright (D) — FLIP
№2 (tie): 7th Congressional District: Susan Wild (D) — FLIP
№2 (tie): 10th Congressional District: Scott Perry (R) — NO FLIP
№4: 17th Congressional District: Chris Deluzio (D) — NO FLIP
Potentially vulnerable
№5: 1st Congressional District: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) — NO FLIP
***
FLORIDA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
My final ratings were published in the Tampa Bay Times on Sept. 11. No seats flipped this year, so I was accurate,
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
No races
Potentially Vulnerable
№1: 13th District: Anna Paulina Luna (R)
№2 (tie): 15th District: Laurel Lee (R)
№2 (tie): 27th District: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
№4: 9th District: Darren Soto (D)
Minimally vulnerable
№5: 28th District: Carlos Gimenez (R)
***
SUMMING UP
President: Every race on the right side of the line
Senate: Every race on the right side of the line
Governor: Every race on the right side of the line
Secretary of state: Every race on the right side of the line
Attorney general: One race on the wrong side of the line
State legislatures: Every leaning chamber went the right way
Lieutenant governor: One race on the wrong side of the line
Pennsylvania U.S. House seats: The top two races flipped, and the others didn’t
Florida U.S. House seats: No races flipped.
So, nine categories of races, only two calls on the wrong side of the line.
I’ll take it. Let’s try this again in two years.
