Ratingspalooza 2018

Louis Jacobson
8 min readNov 5, 2018

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Here is the complete compendium of Lou Jacobson’s final pre-election handicapping of the 2018 midterms for Governing, PoliticsPA and the Tampa Bay Times, all in one convenient location.

Election Day is upon us, and as I’ve done in past electoral cycles, I’m publishing a compendium of all my ratings for the races I’ve handicapped this year.

Readers can use this as a guide to watching the returns — and as a check on the accuracy of my analysis.

For gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state contests, which I handicap for Governing, I not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank-ordering. That is, the list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats. Races that end up on the “wrong” side of that line detract from my accuracy.

My ratings for state legislature control work a bit differently. I still rank chambers on the typical scale — safe Republican, likely Republican, lean Republican, tossup, lean Democratic, likely Democratic, safe Democratic — but I don’t rank-order them within each category.

I’m also including in the list below my ratings of two state’s congressional delegations. I assemble a vulnerability list for U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania (for PoliticsPA.com) and in Florida (for the Tampa Bay Times). These lists run from the most likely to flip partisan control (at the top) to less likely to flip partisan control (at the bottom).

Historically, my gubernatorial handicapping has been generally accurate. In 2010, I had just one contest on the “wrong” side of the dividing line. In 2012, I was fully correct; in 2014, my worst performance, I was wrong about four (out of 36) contests; and in 2016, I was off in two races.

For three cycles running, I have correctly arranged the state AG races.

This is the first election cycle that I have rank-ordered the secretary of state races.

After Election Day, we’ll see how I did.

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GOVERNOR

Published in: Governing

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Idaho (R-held)
Wyoming (R-held)
Arkansas (R-held)
Nebraska (R-held)
Texas (R-held)
Alabama (R-held)
Massachusetts (R-held)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Tennessee (R-held)
Maryland (R-held)
Vermont (R-held)
South Carolina (R-held)
Arizona (R-held)

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Oklahoma (R-held)
New Hampshire (R-held)

TOSSUP

Alaska (I-held)
South Dakota (R-held)
Kansas (R-held)
Georgia (R-held)
Ohio (R-held)
Iowa (R-held)
Wisconsin (R-held)
Nevada (R-held)
Florida (R-held)
Maine (R-held)
Oregon (D-held)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

Connecticut (D-held)
Minnesota (D-held)
Colorado (D-held)
New Mexico (R-held)

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Michigan (R-held)
Rhode Island (D-held)
Illinois (R-held)
Pennsylvania (D-held)

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

New York (D-held)
Hawaii (D-held)
California (D-held)

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STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL

Published in: Governing

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Nebraska AG Doug Peterson (R)

Idaho AG Lawrence Wasden (R)

North Dakota AG Wayne Stenehjem (R)

Arkansas AG Leslie Rutledge (R)

Oklahoma AG Mike Hunter (R)

Kansas AG Derek Schmidt (R)

South Dakota: Open seat; AG Marty Jackley (R) ran unsuccessfully for governor

Alabama AG Steve Marshall (R)

Texas AG Ken Paxton (R)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

No races in this category

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Arizona AG Mark Brnovich (R)

South Carolina AG Alan Wilson (R)

Georgia AG Chris Carr (R)

TOSSUP

Wisconsin AG Brad Schimel (R)

Michigan: Open seat; AG Bill Schuette (R) is running for governor

Florida: Open seat; AG Pam Bondi (R) is term-limited

Minnesota: Open seat; AG Lori Swanson (D) is running for governor

Ohio: Open seat; AG Mike DeWine (R) is running for governor

Nevada: Open seat; AG Adam Laxalt (R) is running for governor

Colorado: Open seat; AG Cynthia Coffman (R) is not running for releection

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

Illinois: Open seat; AG Lisa Madigan (D) is not running for another term

Connecticut: Open seat; AG George Jepsen (D) is retiring

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Delaware: Open seat; AG Matt Denn (D) is retiring

Maryland AG Brian Frosh (D)

New York: Open seat; AG Eric Schneiderman (D) resigned

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

New Mexico AG Hector Balderas (D)

Massachusetts AG Maura Healy (D)

Iowa AG Tom Miller (D)

Rhode Island: Open seat; AG Peter Kilmartin (D) is term-limited

Vermont AG T.J. Donovan (D)

California AG Xavier Becerra (D)

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SECRETARY OF STATE

Published in: Governing

SAFE REPUBLICAN

Idaho Secretary of State Lawrence Denney (R)

South Dakota: Open seat; held by Shantel Krebs (R)

Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R)

Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Buchanan (R)

Nebraska: Open seat; held by John Gale (R)

South Carolina Secretary of State Mark Hammond (R)

North Dakota Secretary of State Al Jaeger (R)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Indiana Secretary of State Connie Lawson (R)

Arkansas: Open seat; held by Mark Martin (R)

Louisiana Secretary of State R. Kyle Ardoin (R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Arizona: Open seat: held by Michele Reagan (R)

Georgia: Open seat; held by Brian Kemp (R)

TOSSUP

Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R)

Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams (R)

Ohio: Open seat; held by Jon Husted (R)

Kansas: Open seat; held by Kris Kobach (R)

Nevada Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske (R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

Michigan: Open seat; held by Ruth Johnson (R)

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

Connecticut Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D)

New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D)

Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon (D)

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

Wisconsin Secretary of State Doug LaFollette (D)

Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D)

Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin (D)

Vermont Secretary of State Jim Condos (D)

California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D)

Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White (D)

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STATE LEGISLATURES

Published in: Governing

ALABAMA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 25–8 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 72–32 R

ALASKA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 14–6 R

House: Projected Tossup; Current 21 R-17 D (Democrats control in a cross-party coalition)

ARIZONA

Senate: Projected Lean R; Current 17–13 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 35–25 R

ARKANSAS

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 25–9 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 75–24 R

CALIFORNIA

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 25–14 D

Assembly: Projected Safe D; Current 55–25 D

COLORADO

Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–16 R

House: Projected Likely D; Current 36–29 D

CONNECTICUT

Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–18

House: Projected Lean D; Current 80–71 D

DELAWARE

Senate: Projected Lean D; Current 11–10 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 25–16 D

FLORIDA

Senate: Projected Lean R; Current 23–16 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 76–41 R

GEORGIA

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 37–19 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 116–64 R

HAWAII

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 24–0 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 46–5 D

IDAHO

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 29–6 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 59–11 R

ILLINOIS

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 37–22 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 66–50 D

INDIANA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 41–9 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 70–30 R

IOWA

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 29–20 R

House: Projected Lean R; Current 58–41 R

KANSAS

Senate: No Races; Current 31–9 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 85–40 R

KENTUCKY

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 27–11 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 63–37 R

LOUISIANA

Senate: 25–14 R

House: 61–40 R

Neither chamber in Louisiana is contested this year.

MAINE

Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–17 R

House: Projected Lean D; Current 74–70 D

MARYLAND

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 33–14 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 91–50 D

MASSACHUSETTS

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 31–7 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 117–34 D

MICHIGAN

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 27–10 R

House: Projected Lean R; Current 63–46 R

MINNESOTA

Senate: Projected Lean R; Current 33–33 (special election)

House: Projected Lean R; Current 77–56 R

MISSISSIPPI

Senate: 33–19 R

House: 73–47 R

Neither chamber in Mississippi is contested this year.

MISSOURI

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 23–9 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 112–47 R

MONTANA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 32–18 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 59–41 R

NEBRASKA

Senate: Unicameral/Nonpartisan

Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan, so we don’t handicap it.

NEVADA

Senate: Projected Likely D; Current 10–8 D

Assembly: Projected Likely D; Current 27–14 D

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Senate: Projected Lean D; Current 14–10 R

House: Projected Lean D; Current 214–170 R

NEW JERSEY

Senate: 25–15 D

Assembly: 54–26 D

Neither chamber in New Jersey is contested this year.

NEW MEXICO

Senate: No elections this year. Current 26–16 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 38–31 D

NEW YORK

Senate: Projected Lean D; Current 32 D-31 R (cross-party coalition)

Assembly: Projected Safe D; Current 104–41 D

NORTH CAROLINA

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 34–15 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 75–45 R

NORTH DAKOTA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 38–9 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 81–13 R

OHIO

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 24–9 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 64–33 R

OKLAHOMA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 39–8 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 72–28 R

OREGON

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 17–13 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 35–25 D

PENNSYLVANIA

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 33–16 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 121–82 R

RHODE ISLAND

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 33–4 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 64–11 D

SOUTH CAROLINA

Senate: No Races; Current 27–18 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 80–44 R

SOUTH DAKOTA

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 28–6 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 59–10 R

TENNESSEE

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 28–5 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 73–25 R

TEXAS

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 20–11 R

House: Projected Likely R; Current 93–55 R

UTAH

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 24–5 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 61–13 R

VERMONT

Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 21–7 D

House: Projected Safe D; Current 83–53 D

VIRGINIA

Senate: 21–19 R

House: 51–49 R

Neither chamber in Virginia is contested this year.

WASHINGTON STATE

Senate: Projected Likely D; Current 26–23 D

House: Projected Likely D; Current 50–48 D

WEST VIRGINIA

Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 22–12 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 64–36 R

WISCONSIN

Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–15 R

Assembly: Projected Likely R; Current 64–35 R

WYOMING

Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 27–3 R

House: Projected Safe R; Current 51–9 R

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PENNSYLVANIA U.S. HOUSE SEATS

Published in: PoliticsPA.com

HIGHLY VULNERABLE

1. 5th District: R-held open seat (Patrick Meehan)

2. 6th District: R-held open seat (Ryan Costello)

3. 14th District: D-held open seat (Conor Lamb)

4. 17th District: Rep. Keith Rothfus (R)

5. 7th District: R-held open seat (Charlie Dent)

6. 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

VULNERABLE

7. 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R)

8. 16th District: Rep. Mike Kelly (R)

9. 11th District: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R)

POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE

10. 8th District: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)

MINIMALLY VULNERABLE

11. 9th District: R-held open seat (Lou Barletta)

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FLORIDA U.S. HOUSE SEATS

Published in: Tampa Bay Times

HIGHLY VULNERABLE

No races in this category.

VULNERABLE

1. District 27: Open seat (Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R, is retiring)

2. District 26: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)

3. District 15: Open seat (Rep. Dennis Ross, R, is retiring)

4. District 6: Open seat (Rep. Ron DeSantis, R, running for governor)

5. District 18: Rep. Brian Mast (R)

6. District 25: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE

7 (tie). District 7: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D)

7 (tie). District 16: Vern Buchanan (R)

MINIMALLY VULNERABLE

9 (tie). District 3 (Ted Yoho, R), District 8 (Bill Posey, R), District 12 (Gus Bilirakis, R)

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Louis Jacobson

PolitiFact chief correspondent; sr. author, Almanac of American Politics ’16, '18, '20, '22, '24; columnist/handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball, U.S. News.