Ratingspalooza 2018
Here is the complete compendium of Lou Jacobson’s final pre-election handicapping of the 2018 midterms for Governing, PoliticsPA and the Tampa Bay Times, all in one convenient location.
Election Day is upon us, and as I’ve done in past electoral cycles, I’m publishing a compendium of all my ratings for the races I’ve handicapped this year.
Readers can use this as a guide to watching the returns — and as a check on the accuracy of my analysis.
For gubernatorial, attorney general and secretary of state contests, which I handicap for Governing, I not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank-ordering. That is, the list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and those most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats. Races that end up on the “wrong” side of that line detract from my accuracy.
My ratings for state legislature control work a bit differently. I still rank chambers on the typical scale — safe Republican, likely Republican, lean Republican, tossup, lean Democratic, likely Democratic, safe Democratic — but I don’t rank-order them within each category.
I’m also including in the list below my ratings of two state’s congressional delegations. I assemble a vulnerability list for U.S. House seats in Pennsylvania (for PoliticsPA.com) and in Florida (for the Tampa Bay Times). These lists run from the most likely to flip partisan control (at the top) to less likely to flip partisan control (at the bottom).
Historically, my gubernatorial handicapping has been generally accurate. In 2010, I had just one contest on the “wrong” side of the dividing line. In 2012, I was fully correct; in 2014, my worst performance, I was wrong about four (out of 36) contests; and in 2016, I was off in two races.
For three cycles running, I have correctly arranged the state AG races.
This is the first election cycle that I have rank-ordered the secretary of state races.
After Election Day, we’ll see how I did.
***
GOVERNOR
Published in: Governing
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Idaho (R-held)
Wyoming (R-held)
Arkansas (R-held)
Nebraska (R-held)
Texas (R-held)
Alabama (R-held)
Massachusetts (R-held)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Tennessee (R-held)
Maryland (R-held)
Vermont (R-held)
South Carolina (R-held)
Arizona (R-held)
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Oklahoma (R-held)
New Hampshire (R-held)
TOSSUP
Alaska (I-held)
South Dakota (R-held)
Kansas (R-held)
Georgia (R-held)
Ohio (R-held)
Iowa (R-held)
Wisconsin (R-held)
Nevada (R-held)
Florida (R-held)
Maine (R-held)
Oregon (D-held)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Connecticut (D-held)
Minnesota (D-held)
Colorado (D-held)
New Mexico (R-held)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Michigan (R-held)
Rhode Island (D-held)
Illinois (R-held)
Pennsylvania (D-held)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
New York (D-held)
Hawaii (D-held)
California (D-held)
***
STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL
Published in: Governing
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Nebraska AG Doug Peterson (R)
Idaho AG Lawrence Wasden (R)
North Dakota AG Wayne Stenehjem (R)
Arkansas AG Leslie Rutledge (R)
Oklahoma AG Mike Hunter (R)
Kansas AG Derek Schmidt (R)
South Dakota: Open seat; AG Marty Jackley (R) ran unsuccessfully for governor
Alabama AG Steve Marshall (R)
Texas AG Ken Paxton (R)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
No races in this category
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Arizona AG Mark Brnovich (R)
South Carolina AG Alan Wilson (R)
Georgia AG Chris Carr (R)
TOSSUP
Wisconsin AG Brad Schimel (R)
Michigan: Open seat; AG Bill Schuette (R) is running for governor
Florida: Open seat; AG Pam Bondi (R) is term-limited
Minnesota: Open seat; AG Lori Swanson (D) is running for governor
Ohio: Open seat; AG Mike DeWine (R) is running for governor
Nevada: Open seat; AG Adam Laxalt (R) is running for governor
Colorado: Open seat; AG Cynthia Coffman (R) is not running for releection
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Illinois: Open seat; AG Lisa Madigan (D) is not running for another term
Connecticut: Open seat; AG George Jepsen (D) is retiring
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Delaware: Open seat; AG Matt Denn (D) is retiring
Maryland AG Brian Frosh (D)
New York: Open seat; AG Eric Schneiderman (D) resigned
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
New Mexico AG Hector Balderas (D)
Massachusetts AG Maura Healy (D)
Iowa AG Tom Miller (D)
Rhode Island: Open seat; AG Peter Kilmartin (D) is term-limited
Vermont AG T.J. Donovan (D)
California AG Xavier Becerra (D)
***
SECRETARY OF STATE
Published in: Governing
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Idaho Secretary of State Lawrence Denney (R)
South Dakota: Open seat; held by Shantel Krebs (R)
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R)
Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Buchanan (R)
Nebraska: Open seat; held by John Gale (R)
South Carolina Secretary of State Mark Hammond (R)
North Dakota Secretary of State Al Jaeger (R)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Indiana Secretary of State Connie Lawson (R)
Arkansas: Open seat; held by Mark Martin (R)
Louisiana Secretary of State R. Kyle Ardoin (R)
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Arizona: Open seat: held by Michele Reagan (R)
Georgia: Open seat; held by Brian Kemp (R)
TOSSUP
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate (R)
Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams (R)
Ohio: Open seat; held by Jon Husted (R)
Kansas: Open seat; held by Kris Kobach (R)
Nevada Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske (R)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Michigan: Open seat; held by Ruth Johnson (R)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Connecticut Secretary of State Denise Merrill (D)
New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D)
Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon (D)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Wisconsin Secretary of State Doug LaFollette (D)
Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea (D)
Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin (D)
Vermont Secretary of State Jim Condos (D)
California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D)
Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White (D)
***
STATE LEGISLATURES
Published in: Governing
ALABAMA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 25–8 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 72–32 R
ALASKA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 14–6 R
House: Projected Tossup; Current 21 R-17 D (Democrats control in a cross-party coalition)
ARIZONA
Senate: Projected Lean R; Current 17–13 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 35–25 R
ARKANSAS
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 25–9 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 75–24 R
CALIFORNIA
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 25–14 D
Assembly: Projected Safe D; Current 55–25 D
COLORADO
Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–16 R
House: Projected Likely D; Current 36–29 D
CONNECTICUT
Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–18
House: Projected Lean D; Current 80–71 D
DELAWARE
Senate: Projected Lean D; Current 11–10 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 25–16 D
FLORIDA
Senate: Projected Lean R; Current 23–16 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 76–41 R
GEORGIA
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 37–19 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 116–64 R
HAWAII
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 24–0 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 46–5 D
IDAHO
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 29–6 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 59–11 R
ILLINOIS
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 37–22 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 66–50 D
INDIANA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 41–9 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 70–30 R
IOWA
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 29–20 R
House: Projected Lean R; Current 58–41 R
KANSAS
Senate: No Races; Current 31–9 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 85–40 R
KENTUCKY
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 27–11 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 63–37 R
LOUISIANA
Senate: 25–14 R
House: 61–40 R
Neither chamber in Louisiana is contested this year.
MAINE
Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–17 R
House: Projected Lean D; Current 74–70 D
MARYLAND
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 33–14 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 91–50 D
MASSACHUSETTS
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 31–7 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 117–34 D
MICHIGAN
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 27–10 R
House: Projected Lean R; Current 63–46 R
MINNESOTA
Senate: Projected Lean R; Current 33–33 (special election)
House: Projected Lean R; Current 77–56 R
MISSISSIPPI
Senate: 33–19 R
House: 73–47 R
Neither chamber in Mississippi is contested this year.
MISSOURI
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 23–9 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 112–47 R
MONTANA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 32–18 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 59–41 R
NEBRASKA
Senate: Unicameral/Nonpartisan
Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is officially nonpartisan, so we don’t handicap it.
NEVADA
Senate: Projected Likely D; Current 10–8 D
Assembly: Projected Likely D; Current 27–14 D
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Senate: Projected Lean D; Current 14–10 R
House: Projected Lean D; Current 214–170 R
NEW JERSEY
Senate: 25–15 D
Assembly: 54–26 D
Neither chamber in New Jersey is contested this year.
NEW MEXICO
Senate: No elections this year. Current 26–16 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 38–31 D
NEW YORK
Senate: Projected Lean D; Current 32 D-31 R (cross-party coalition)
Assembly: Projected Safe D; Current 104–41 D
NORTH CAROLINA
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 34–15 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 75–45 R
NORTH DAKOTA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 38–9 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 81–13 R
OHIO
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 24–9 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 64–33 R
OKLAHOMA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 39–8 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 72–28 R
OREGON
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 17–13 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 35–25 D
PENNSYLVANIA
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 33–16 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 121–82 R
RHODE ISLAND
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 33–4 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 64–11 D
SOUTH CAROLINA
Senate: No Races; Current 27–18 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 80–44 R
SOUTH DAKOTA
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 28–6 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 59–10 R
TENNESSEE
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 28–5 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 73–25 R
TEXAS
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 20–11 R
House: Projected Likely R; Current 93–55 R
UTAH
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 24–5 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 61–13 R
VERMONT
Senate: Projected Safe D; Current 21–7 D
House: Projected Safe D; Current 83–53 D
VIRGINIA
Senate: 21–19 R
House: 51–49 R
Neither chamber in Virginia is contested this year.
WASHINGTON STATE
Senate: Projected Likely D; Current 26–23 D
House: Projected Likely D; Current 50–48 D
WEST VIRGINIA
Senate: Projected Likely R; Current 22–12 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 64–36 R
WISCONSIN
Senate: Projected Tossup; Current 18–15 R
Assembly: Projected Likely R; Current 64–35 R
WYOMING
Senate: Projected Safe R; Current 27–3 R
House: Projected Safe R; Current 51–9 R
***
PENNSYLVANIA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
Published in: PoliticsPA.com
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
1. 5th District: R-held open seat (Patrick Meehan)
2. 6th District: R-held open seat (Ryan Costello)
3. 14th District: D-held open seat (Conor Lamb)
4. 17th District: Rep. Keith Rothfus (R)
5. 7th District: R-held open seat (Charlie Dent)
6. 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
VULNERABLE
7. 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
8. 16th District: Rep. Mike Kelly (R)
9. 11th District: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R)
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
10. 8th District: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
11. 9th District: R-held open seat (Lou Barletta)
***
FLORIDA U.S. HOUSE SEATS
Published in: Tampa Bay Times
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
No races in this category.
VULNERABLE
1. District 27: Open seat (Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R, is retiring)
2. District 26: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)
3. District 15: Open seat (Rep. Dennis Ross, R, is retiring)
4. District 6: Open seat (Rep. Ron DeSantis, R, running for governor)
5. District 18: Rep. Brian Mast (R)
6. District 25: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE
7 (tie). District 7: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D)
7 (tie). District 16: Vern Buchanan (R)
MINIMALLY VULNERABLE
9 (tie). District 3 (Ted Yoho, R), District 8 (Bill Posey, R), District 12 (Gus Bilirakis, R)
