Small markets, big races
A list of Senate and House contests in places where every dollar goes a long way
By Louis Jacobson
Say you have some spare cash — but you’re not a billionaire — and you want to make some political donations. Where can you get the biggest bang for your buck?
You’re in luck: There are more than a dozen highly competitive Senate and House contests this year that could spell the difference in majority control in either chamber.
I looked at the universe of Senate and House contests that are considered either toss-ups or leaning slightly towards one party or another. They all include a candidate for each party with a credible shot at winning the race. And with the Democrats’ narrow Senate majority and the Republicans’ narrow House majority, any of these races could prove decisive in shaping the future congressional agenda.
Here’s the kicker: Each of these contests is playing out in less populated media markets, meaning every dollar will go further.
By contrast, lots of highly competitive seats are taking place in pricey media markets. California’s open 47th district, held by outgoing Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, is in the massive Los Angeles market, while GOP Reps. Mike Lawler and Athony D’Esposito are seeking reelection in the suburbs and exurbs of New York City. Two Republican incumbents, Juan Ciscomani and David Schweikert, are running for districts near Phoenix.
The thumbnail of each race below includes the list of main media markets within the state (for Senate races) or the congressional district (for House races) as determined by the most recent Nielsen rankings for the nation’s 210 markets. Nielsen’s ranking is based on the estimated number of households with at least one television in the market; it doesn’t measure the cost of television advertising directly, but the Nielsen ranking is considered a rough proxy.
Senate races
Both Senate races on our list are currently held by the Democrats. The most competitive GOP-held Senate are in Texas and Florida, but not only are they not in the top tier of competitive Senate contests — they are also both states that have a bevy of expensive media markets.
Montana Senate
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Aerospace CEO, retired Navy SEAL and political newcomer Tim Sheehy
Tester, a family farmer known for his buzz cut and for having lost three fingers in a meat-grinder accident as a child, is up for reelection in an increasingly red state. He’s the only statewide elected Democratic officeholder remaining in Montana.
Sheehy, the favorite of national Republican strategists, prevailed in the GOP primary and has been polling competitively.
The media markets that are either in Montana or reach into it all belong to the bottom one-third of markets nationally. The biggest is Minot-Bismarck (both technically in North Dakota) (145th), followed by Missoula (161st), Billings (165th), Butte-Bozeman (184th), Great Falls (191st), Helena (203rd) and Glendive (210th), the nation’s smallest market, with just 3,950 homes with TVs.
Nevada Senate
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen
Challenger: Republican Sam Brown, wounded Army veteran
Rosen is a first-term senator who faces reelection in swingy Nevada. Republican primary voters nominated Brown, who lost the primary two years ago for Nevada’s other Senate seat.
Of all the races on our list, the Nevada Senate race includes one of the largest media markets: Las Vegas. Still, despite its high national profile, Las Vegas ranks only a modest 40th on the national list of media markets. Aside from a barely populated corner of the state served by the Salt Lake City media market, the only other market in Nevada is Reno, which ranks 103rd.
House races: Democratic-held seats
Alaska at-large
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola
Leading challenger: Software executive Nick Begich
Peltola won an upset special election victory for Alaska’s sole House seat in August 2022, flipping a seat previously held by Republican Don Young before his death that year. Aided by the state’s newly enacted top-four, ranked-choice voting system, Peltola defeated two high-profile Republicans, former Gov. and vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and software executive Nick Begich, who is related to a prominent Alaska political family. She became the first Native Alaskan to serve in Congress and the first woman to represent the state in the House. She won a full term in the otherwise Republican-leaning state in November 2022.
In the Aug. 20 primary, Begich finished second to Peltola, and the third-place finisher, Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, dropped out, leaving Peltola and Begich as the only major-party candidates to make it to November. Peltola won slightly more than 50% of the primary vote, giving her a modest edge heading into the general election.
Enormous but thinly populated Alaska is essentially the definition of a state with inexpensive media markets. Its largest is Anchorage, which ranks 146th, followed by Fairbanks (202nd) and Juneau (207th).
Maine 2nd District
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden
Challenger: Republican Austin Theriault, former NASCAR driver and businessman
Golden has held on to his seat representing predominantly rural and blue-collar portions of Maine through three terms, during a time when Democrats are faring poorly in regions with those demographics. His moderate ideology and Maine’s ranked-choice voting system have helped him stay in office.
As he seeks a fourth term, he faces Theriault, who brings a dash of celebrity from his race-car driving days.
Notably, Maine’s 2nd District allocates its own electoral vote, which Donald Trump has won in both of his previous campaigns. So any money spent here to gin up turnout could potentially affect the presidential race as well. U.S. News rates the 2nd District’s electoral vote as Lean Republican.
A portion of the district is served by media from Portland, the nation’s 78th biggest market. The rest is served by even smaller markets; Bangor (156th) and Presque Isle (206th).
Michigan 8th District
Incumbent: Open seat
Democratic nominee: Former Bay City commissioner Kristen McDonald Rivet
Republican nominee: Former TV news anchor Paul Junge
This seat is being left open by the retirement of Dan Kildee, who is finishing his sixth term; he succeeded his uncle Dale Kildee, who was first elected in 1976.
It’s an ancestrally Democratic district, but one with a lot of blue-collar workers in cities like Flint who have been increasingly receptive to the GOP during the Trump era. In 2008, the district backed Barack Obama 64%-35%, but in 2020, voters backed Obama’s onetime vice president, Joe Biden, only narrowly, 50%-48%.
The district is primarily covered by the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City media market, the nation’s 74th largest.
New Mexico 2nd District
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Gabe Vazquez
Challenger: Republican former Rep. Yvette Herrell
Vasquez is a rookie congressman who ousted Republican incumbent Herrell in 2022 by about 1,300 votes. This year, Herrell is trying to win her seat back.
The district takes in a wide swath of southern New Mexico, anchored by Las Cruces. Biden won it with about 52% of the vote in 2020.
A portion of the state’s biggest city, Albuquerque, is in the district, and that’s also the biggest media market — the 49th largest nationally. The second biggest spans Las Cruces and, across the Texas border, El Paso (89th). A third also comes from Texas: Amarillo (131st).
Pennsylvania 8th District
Incumbent: Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright
Challenger: Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan
Cartwright, like Golden on this list, is a Democratic survivor in challenging territory, winning election since 2012. His current district backed Trump in 2020 by a 51%-48% margin.
Cartwright hails from Scranton, a historically Democratic area that has been trending Republican in recent elections. The district also includes Wilkes-Barre, which also is historically Democratic but which has flipped even more strongly to the GOP in the Trump era.
Republicans are high on their recruit for 2024: Bresnahan, a businessman.
The Wilkes-Barre-Scranton market ranks 58th largest in the U.S.
House races: Republican-held seats
California 13th District
Incumbent: Republican Rep. John Duarte
Challenger: Democratic former state Assemblyman Adam Gray
This is one of two Republican-held House seats on our list from California, an otherwise strongly blue state where Republicans are mostly confined these days to relatively unpopulated regions.
Duarte, now serving his first term, defeated Gray in 2022 by only about 500 votes, and Gray is mounting a rematch this year. The district, which includes Merced and portions of Stanislaus in California’s vast and agricultural-oriented Central Valley, backed Biden in the presidential race in 2020, 54%-43%, making this a top target for Democrats this year.
A portion of the district is covered by the Sacramento-Modesto media market, the nation’s 20th largest, but much is covered by the Fresno market, which ranks 52nd largest.
California 22nd District
Incumbent: Republican Rep. David Valadao
Challenger: Democrat Rudy Salas, former state Assemblyman and Bakersfield city council member
The other California district on this list is also in the state’s Central Valley. Like Duarte, Valadao has bucked the odds by winning this seat (he won it in both 2020 and 2022). The district, which is centered around portions of agriculture-and-oil heavy Bakersfield, backed Biden in 2020 by a 55%-42% margin. And like Duarte, Valadao faces his 2022 challenger again: Salas lost to Valadao 52%-48% in 2022.
The district’s biggest media market is Fresno, which ranks 52nd nationally. Bakersfield ranks 124th.
Iowa 3rd District
Incumbent: Republican Rep. Zach Nunn
Challenger: Democrat Lanon Baccam, Afghan War veteran and onetime senior official at the U.S. Agriculture Department
Republicans currently control all of Iowa’s four congressional districts, although three of them were fairly competitive for Biden in 2020 despite the state’s increasingly red lean. This district, centered on Des Moines, is where Biden performed best, losing by only about 1,500 votes.
Nunn is serving his first term in Congress, having ousted incumbent Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne by only about 2,100 votes in 2022. This year, he faces Baccam, an .
The Des Moines media market ranks 67th in the U.S., and another market that covers a portion of the district, Ottumwa, ranks 200th.
Nebraska 2nd District
Incumbent: Republican Rep. Don Bacon
Challenger: Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas
Like Golden’s district in Maine, Bacon’s district is a rare one that, due to state law, awards an electoral vote of its own in the presidential race, heightening the stakes for his reelection bid. While Republicans regularly cruise to victory in presidential races statewide, Barack Obama won the 2nd District’s electoral vote in 2008 and then Biden won it in 2020, after Republicans won it in 2012 and 2016. U.S. News rates the district in the presidential race a Toss-up.
Bacon has defended his seat since first winning it in 2016, touting his relatively moderate approach. This year, he faces a rematch with Vargas, a state senator who lost to Bacon 51%-49% in 2022.
Finally, the U.S. Senate race may be a late-developing sleeper contest. The Republican incumbent, Deb Fischer, faces independent union official and Navy veteran Dan Osborn, who is running without a Democratic candidate on the ballot. A Split Ticket poll released in late August found Fischer with 39%, Osborn with 38% and 23% undecided. If this race becomes competitive, it could attract more national interest.
The 2nd District exists almost exclusively of Douglas County, which is dominated by Omaha and its suburbs. Omaha is the nation’s 71st largest media market.
New York 22nd District
Incumbent: Republican Rep. Brandon Williams
Challenger: Democratic state Sen. John Mannion
While Williams holds this seat as a Republican, some handicappers rate this contest as leaning slightly Democratic. In a hotly contested Democratic primary, Mannion defeated DeWitt town councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood. Williams outpaced both Democrats in money in the bank, with more than $1 million stockpiled.
The district’s two population centers, Syracuse and Utica, have media markets that rank 87th and 171st respectively.
