The race to win Ohio: Three key questions for Trump and Clinton

By Louis Jacobson

LAKEWOOD, Ohio — With the eyes of a nation on Cleveland for the Republican National Convention, the four-day confab is once again focusing attention on Ohio, the perennial presidential swing state.

A discussion with several politicos in this suburb of Cleveland zeroed in a few key questions that will likely shape the outcome of the Buckeye State. The state has 18 electoral votes and polls show a close race, with Clinton typically ahead by a small margin. It is a crucial element of both parties’ paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Here are three key questions.

Who can improve vote totals more, Trump in Appalachia or Clinton in the suburbs?

Some of Trump’s strongest regions during the Ohio primary were in the Appalachian portions of Ohio, which are clustered in the southeast, said Kyle Kondik, an Ohio native and University of Virginia political analyst recently authored the book The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.

Kondik said it’s possible that Trump could do well in post-industrial areas such as Trumbull County in the northeastern corner of the state. While historically Democratic, regions like this include many blue-collar workers facing economic strain — a prime demographic for Trump.

On the other hand, Kondik said, some of Trump’s weakest regions in the Ohio primary were in more affluent suburban areas.

He pointed to Delaware County, north of Columbus — a fast-growing and affluent county with high rates of educational achievement. It has voted Republican all the way back to the 1920s, but it was among Trump’s worst-performing counties in the primary, Kondik said.

In the general election, Kondik said, “I think there’s definitely an opportunity for Trump to do well in Appalachian Ohio.” But to gain ground overall in the state, Trump can’t afford to cancel out his gains in Appalachia with weaker-than-normal results in suburban areas. Because Romney lost the state in 2012, Trump has to make up ground in order to win.

“That seems like a challenge to me,” Kondik said. “If he has a message that’s great for Appalachian Ohio, that may not be a good message for places in the state that are growing, wealthier and more educated.”

Does Trump manage to put together a solid ground game?

In 2012, Obama “out-machined” Romney in Ohio, running 80 field offices, compared to just 20 for the Republican. Experts say that was crucial to Obama’s victory that year

But at least Romney “knew he had to do the ground game, and tried,” said Tom Sutton, a political scientist at Baldwin-Wallace University in Berea, Ohio. “Trump hasn’t given it much thought.”

As in other battleground states, Trump’s on-the-ground organization has gotten off to a late start, trailing what Clinton has in place, experts said.

“Romney had a horrible organization in Ohio in 2012, but Trump could even do worse,” said Barbara Palmer, a political scientist at Baldwin-Wallace and co-author of Women and Congressional Elections: A Century of Change.

And it doesn’t help that the Trump camp has had a fractured relationship with the state party.

The nominee has publicly feuded with his rival, John Kasich, Ohio’s popular Republican governor and the winner of Ohio’s 2016 GOP primary. Indeed, when the Trump camp took shots at Kasich on the eve of the GOP convention in his home state, the state GOP chairman, Matt Borges, tweeted that Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort “still has a lot to learn about Ohio politics. Doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Hope he can do better.”

One risk for Clinton, however, is that she could lose the support of rank-and-file members of labor unions. Officially, Clinton has locked up the support of the leadership of most key unions, a key source of on-the-ground muscle to get Democratic voters to the polls. But Trump’s appeal with blue-collar voters could put the leaders’ interests at odds with those of their members

“I think there is a significant worry for union leaders that there will be erosion in support for Clinton in the rank and file,” Kondik said.

To prevent this from happening, Clinton and her allies need to sharpen her message to union members, said Amy Hanauer, the executive director of Policy Matters Ohio, a liberal group with offices in Cleveland and Columbus.

“Trump’s talk on trade conflicts strongly with his own labor practices,” Hanauer said. “The question is whether the union leadership can get that story out to their membership.”

Can Clinton engage voters?

In Ohio, a rust-belt state, economic issues have a strong resonance. But Clinton will inevitably have to defend eight years of Obama’s economic policies.

“Talking about a jobs agenda makes sense, but from a messaging standpoint, she has to tell it in an exciting way that sounds real to voters,” said Vanessa Tey Iosue, president of Burges & Burges, a political consulting firm based in Cleveland. “People will stay home if they dislike both candidates so much.”

Given these three factors, experts said Clinton may have a modest edge at this point.

“If Clinton is up by three to four percentage points nationally, which is what polls say now, history says she should win the state,” he said.